Announcing the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2013, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said that thanks to shale gas and tight oil, the US is expected to become the world’s top oil producer in 2015, surpassing both Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier than expected.
From 9.2 million in 2012, US’ oil production is expected to reach 11.6 million barrels a day in 2020 thanks to shale activities in Texas and North Dakota.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s oil production is expected to decrease to 10.6 million from 11.7 million, while Russia will fall its oil production to 10.4 million barrels from 10.7 million.
Reuters reports Mr Birol said there will be two “chapters” in the future oil markets: “Up to 2020, we expect the light, tight oil to increase – I would call it a surge. And due to the increase coming from Brazil, the need for Middle East oil in the next few years will definitely be less.”
But he added: “Due to the limited resource base (of U.S. tight oil), it is going to plateau and decline. After 2020 there will be a major dominance of Middle East oil.”
Therefore the US will lose its role of world’s oil producer in 2020 and “The Middle East will remain the heart of the global oil industry for many years to come.”
The IEA’s report shows that global oil demand will reach an average of 101 million barrels per day in 2035 with India and China driving the future energy demand growth.
The US shale boom is definitely reshaping the global energy landscape. Will the US become energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades? Let me know your thoughts below.
Stay up to date with Shale World, subscribe to our enewsletter here to get the latest content straight to you